RESEARCH ARTICLE

Research partnership between CEA/IE and the DECODE Project (University of Pennsylvania) examines the unintended effects of emergency cash transfers on fertility in Brazil

Authors: Alexandre Gori Maia (UNICAMP), Leticia Marteleto (University of Pennsylvania), Luiz Gustavo Sereno (UNICAMP), Sneha Kumar (Northwestern University), Molly Dondero (American University)

Journal: Demographic Research

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world introduced emergency cash transfer programs to mitigate economic hardship. A recent study by Alexandre Gori Maia and Luiz Gustavo Sereno (CEA/IE/), in collaboration with colleagues from the DECODE Project, investigates how Brazil’s Emergency Aid program affected the likelihood of pregnancy among young women in Pernambuco. The results show that women who received emergency aid were less likely to become pregnant during the pandemic, with effects large enough to translate into thousands of postponed or avoided pregnancies. The findings highlight the central role of uncertainty. The pandemic created an environment of heightened health risks, economic instability, and disruptions to public services. In this context, additional income appears to have enabled women to delay pregnancy. One key mechanism is access to contraception: the evidence suggests that emergency aid increased the use of effective contraceptive methods, particularly among younger and less educated women. More broadly, the study contributes to the literature on social policy and fertility by showing that, in times of crisis, financial assistance may reinforce precautionary behavior rather than relax constraints.

Full article: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.17